Will the JFK of the Net be French ?

Par Netpolitique, vendredi 6 avril 2007 à 22:54 :: Netpolitique Monde :: #710 :: rss Tags : , 2007 , Bayrou , campaign , France , net-campagne , net-campaign , netpolitique , netroots , Nicolas Sarkozy , online politics , politics2.0 , presidential , Segolene

In its 10th annual report on the Best of the Web, PoliticsOnline wondered whether Obama would be the JFK of the Net: a candidate who, at long last, would do with the web what JFK did with TV back in the 60s.

If there is an election cycle that is likely to crown the role of the internet in a presidential campaign, it could indeed be this one. Hundreds of websites and blogs popping up everywhere, presidential hopefuls granting exclusive podcast interviews to A-list bloggers, campaign headquarters sprouting up in Second Life, political ads making the rounds on YouTube. It seems the 2008 presidential race is breaking new virtual ground everyday… unless of course you have been paying attention to the French presidential campaign on the web, in which case all of the above is pretty much déjà vu.

Not to sound haughty, but French presidential candidates have been there and done that, and more, for over two years. They are now headed into the final stretch of a bruising political campaign which has ignited the French blogosphere for months now. Every trick in the book has been tried, and when they ran out, they threw it away and started writing new rules.

For a time, early in the campaign, the Howard Dean precedent appeared to be the inescapable reference. No conference on the subject of web and politics could take place without due reference to Trippi, the Deaniacs, and Dean’s web-propelled campaign. But that reference only went so far when it came to actual web-campaigning: back in 2004, blogs were a mere blip on the surface of the web, podcasting was not yet a verb, and YouTube.com was still available for purchase at Godaddy.com for $8.95.

Speaking of YouTube, and the phenomenon the NY Times dubbed “the YouTube election”, it is very much in sync with France’s own “élection dailymotion”. In a country where it is strictly prohibited to buy air time to broadcast political ads, video sites like Dailymotion.com have literally rocked the traditional media environment. For months now, each camp has been testing and playing with the system, uploading hundreds of videos, ranging from sheer propaganda to subtlely edited footage of public speeches, notwithstanding the occasional artist showcasing his musical-cum-activist talent. We even had our version of the macaca incident with a controversial video of Ségolène Royal that derailed the entire media agenda for days and skyrocketed to the very top of the global BlogPulse buzz index back in November of last year.

Aside from planting videos, each party has been cultivating blogs with care, with each candidate committing to let 1,000 blogs bloom over the course of the campaign. As the French netroots were growing like weeds, the main parties tried to set up their own blog platforms to herd their supporters, canvass the blogosphere, and do whatever was necessary so as not to let others dominate a space deemed crucial. Just as they would fight to occupy every available square inch of wall space in the streets to put up posters, candidates and their supporters have done their utmost to colonize the French political blogosphere.

These cyber-troopers will play anything but a virtual role in the weeks ahead: strategists on both sides have been fearful of the Iowa meltdown of the Dean campaign. (not sure if I understand this fully – French strategists are worried their candidate will have their own Dean meltdown?)

Thanks to geo-localization and social networking tools, online volunteers will be called upon for GOTV efforts in ways that traditional French parties probably never achieved before. Looking at the Google mash-ups set up by each team, it is hard in fact to find a corner of France not already covered with dots representing volunteer blogs and teams of supporters. These netroots have legs.

Mobile politics, which is slowly making inroads as the new thing in US-style political outreach, is also expected to play a role. It is now common practice for the UMP party of Nicolas Sarkoy to send SMS messages in the tens of thousands to its supporters, whether it is to wish them a happy new year or remind them to tune in to see their candidate on TV, and eventually to do what is expected of them on Election Day.

Aside from the French hyper-politicized nature, what in Google’s name explains such seemingly “irrational bloguberance”?

First, France’s love affair with the "blogosphère". For reasons little understood, France is apparently one of the European countries with the most blogs, ahead of, say, Germany or the UK.

Second, this electoral cycle is compounded by Parliamentary elections taking place merely a month after, and is eerily timed with an unprecedented cycle of technical “Web 2.0” innovations, which bloggers and geek-activists have been eager to exploit to one-up the other side, even occasionally for the sole objective of appearing more tech-savvy than the others.

Third, every French politician stopped doubting the power of the web when it became clear that the 2005 referendum on the European Constitution had been lost in large part on the web. From that day on, French politicians and media alike vowed not to let themselves blindsided on the web again.

Shall we thus expect to crown our very first web-candidate as early as next month?

Few seriously believe at this point that the web alone will carry one of the candidates across the finish line. In spite of the thousands of online videos that have populated YouTube and DailyMotion, and the hundred of blogs that have been buzzing to the point of filling the infamous echo chamber of the blogosphere with something close to a Larsen feedback, TV and MSM still rule.

Those rules, however, have durably changed for future campaigns. Candidates have had to campaign differently to take into account a thirst for direct interaction and greater interactivity, MSM have had to cover the campaign differently to catch up with recurrent video wildfires and amateur reporters, and French citizens themselves seem to have re-discovered the virtues of self-organizing for political purposes.

Whatever the result on Election Day, to a large extent, the Net has already won this campaign.

Trackbacks

Aucun trackback.

Les trackbacks pour ce billet sont fermés.

Commentaires

1. Le samedi 7 avril 2007 à 01:08, par oldfrog :: email

le "Iowa meltdown" est la description d'un meeting de Dean à Des Moines quand il s'est tellement emporté devant ses supporters, que son exubération est devenu telle qu'il avait l'air d'un fou, surtout à cause de la fin, un cri :

Not only are we going to New Hampshire," he said, his voice rising. "We're going to South Carolina and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York. And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House."

Then he let out a strange, extended, yelp that seemed to come from deep within him: "YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!"

les gens ont commencé à se poser des questions et il a perdu les primaires.

Ce que l'auteur veut dire qu'il y a une peur de stratégistes que l'un des candidats "péte les plombs" et que enregistré sous forme de vidéo type DailyMotion, mette fin à a crédibilité du candiadat. Celui qui court le plus ce risque c'est Sarko, imaginons par exemple que l'intermezzo avec France 3 aie été filmé et publié...

2. Le samedi 7 avril 2007 à 16:57, par Netpo

euh non, bien tenté mais ce n'est pas "ce que l'auteur veut dire". Je faisais référence à l'écroulement d'Howard Dean du fait d'avoir privilégié les militants en ligne par rapport aux militants de terrain au moment du scrutin. Dean n'avait pas de "troupes au sol" en Iowa et son mauvais résultat a été le début de la fin. Le fameux Dean Scream est arrivé au soir de ce résultat ; il ne l'a pas causé. L'incident a néanmoins sans doute acceléré la dégradation de sa crédibilité par la suite.

3. Le dimanche 8 avril 2007 à 05:22, par oldfrog

wikipedia une version lègèrement différente

To the surprise of the Dean and Gephardt campaigns, Dean finished third in Iowa behind Kerry and John Edwards, with Gephardt finishing fourth. Since Dean had spent months leading Iowa tracking polls, his third-place finish was widely considered a sign that the campaign was losing momentum. Most analysts blamed intense negative campaigning between Dean and Gephardt as the reason for their losses. Many Dean supporters questioned whether allegedly unfair media coverage played a role in the result. The Atlantic Monthly's Joshua Green reported that in early January, the Wesley Clark campaign had leaked information to the press showing Dean to be "unelectable." Though every campaign, including Dean's, sends negative information to the press about rival candidates, Green claims the media turned against both Clark and Dean. Other insiders attribute the loss to staff and supporters inexperienced with the caucus process.

Dean attended a post-caucus rally for his volunteers at the Val-Air Ballroom in West Des Moines, Iowa and delivered his concession speech, aimed at cheering up those in attendance. Dean was shouting over the cheers of his enthusiastic audience, but the crowd noise was being filtered out by his unidirectional microphone, leaving only his full-throated exhortations audible to the television viewers. To those at home, it sounded as if he was raising his voice out of sheer emotion. Additionally, Dean began his speech with a flushed-red face, clenching his teeth as he rolled up his sleeves.[17]

According to a Newsday Editorial written by Verne Gay, some members of the television audience criticized the speech as loud, peculiar, and unpresidential.[18] In particular, this quote from the speech was aired repeatedly in the days following the caucus:

"Not only are we going to New Hampshire, Tom Harkin, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York … And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan, and then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House! Byaaah!!!"

This final "Byaaah!!!" has become known in American political folklore as either "the Dean Scream" or the "I Have a Scream" speech (an allusion to I Have a Dream).

Dean conceded that the speech did not project the best image, jokingly referring to it as a "crazy, red-faced rant" on The Late Show with David Letterman. In an interview later that week with Diane Sawyer, he said he was "a little sheepish … but I'm not apologetic."[19] Sawyer and many others in the national broadcast news media later expressed some regret about overplaying the story.[17] In fact, CNN issued a public apology and admitted in a statement that they indeed may have "overplayed" the incident. The incessant replaying of the "Dean Scream" by the press became a debate on the topic of whether Dean was the victim of media bias. Such reports certainly fit with reports of "unelectability," as shown by Green's Atlantic Monthly piece. The scream scene was shown an estimated 633 times by cable and broadcast news networks in just four days following the incident, a number that does not include talk shows and local news broadcasts.[20] However, those who were in the actual audience that day insist that they were not aware of the infamous scream until they returned to their hotel rooms and saw it on TV.[17]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How...

cela dépend comment on traduit la phrase

"These cyber-troopers will play anything but a virtual role in the weeks ahead:"

ces cybersoldats ne jouerons qu'un rôle virtuel dans les semaines à venir

ou

ces cybersoldats joueront tout sauf un rôle virtuel dans les semaines à venir

je penche pour la seconde traduction, qui donc contredirait la thèse que les cyber-troopers seraient à sous-estimer

4. Le dimanche 8 avril 2007 à 08:40, par Netpo

merci oldfrog pour cette référence. Je m'en tiens à la version relevée par "Other insiders attribute the loss to staff and supporters inexperienced with the caucus process". C'est la version de Trippi et de quelques autres : l'Iowa, premier Etat à voter, joue un rôle clé dans la dynamique "mimétique" des Etats qui suivent. La campagne de Dean n'avait pas fait un boulot satisfaisant de constitution de réseaux de soutien mobilisables le jour du vote.

Sur le Dean Scream, je ne savais pas en revanche que CNN avait présenté ses excuses. Quoiqu'il en soit, il me semble que cela ne va pas dans le sens de votre premier message ; vous laissiez entendre qu'un des candidats -vous nommez N. Sarkozy- pourrait sse laisser aller et "péter les plombs" devant une caméra et perdre sa crédibilité. Or en l'occurrence, votre exemple souligne que Dean a fait un speech somme toute normal, mais que la version montrée par les caméras et les micro-unidirectionnels, l'avait transformé en "pétage de plombs.

enfin sur la traduction de la phrase que vous mettez en exergue, cela veut effectivement dire que "ces cybersoldats joueront tout sauf un rôle virtuel dans les semaines à venir". Le contresens pourrait être facheux effectivement.

5. Le lundi 9 avril 2007 à 13:01, par aldous :: email :: site

l'actualité dans notre sphère global ce contracte et les élections française devient analogues a les américaines. cet a dire il ne existe pas vraiment de candidat crédible, intelligent ni sage. mais cet aussi curieux que la Amérique existe en concordance avec la révolution française, cet a dire une république, mais le plus important allie de washington cet londrès une monarquia! cet paradoxe interessant dévoile la confusion de la pensée dans ce monde moderne, ou cet la démocratie et son contraire, la raison et son contraire. les manipulations intelligents qui exerce le pouvoir industrialise sur les employeurs a créer un sort de confusion par la quelle le sécurité se transforme en obeissance et ce ça la raison par la quelle a la place de se épanouir la raison et la conscience, ils se contracte. on ne pense plus et on se soumet a un ordre protecteur autoritaire. les rebelles ne sont pas de rebelles mais ce plus un action humain nevrotique de défense subconscient. seule une évolution de la conscience peu réparer les dégâts faite par les élites industrielles et le régime impose par wall street et autres marche publique. la ou cet les investiseurs qui profite de les travailleurs productive.

6. Le mercredi 18 avril 2007 à 03:21, par Phil Noble :: email :: site

It is great to see that our question "Will Obama be the JFK of the Web?" continues to create such interest and discussion around the world.

I believe the short answer is - we don't know yet.

The Obama campaign is very very young and the whole US campaign for president is now growing by leaps and bounds almost every day. The potential is there for Obama if he stays hot and his campaign spends the time and energy required to focus on their web activities...and more importantly, the independent web activites of their supporters.

In the article where we orginally asked the question, we cited a number of factors that we belive could all come together to make him the JFK of the net. There will be many standards and metrics of online success but one of the easiest to gague is online fundraising and by that standard, Obama is doing very well. Of the major candidates he is raising the most online in absoulte dollars, number of online donors and percentage on total donors online. He has only begun to tape his potential.

A prediction - if Obama goes all the way thru to the general election and stays hot, I would not be surprised if the online fundraising for the Obama campaign and his supporter groups hit $500 million.

As for the use of the online tools, especially blogs, the whole world has a lot to learn from the French elections. They are setting a new standard.

What we all must learn is that innovative and creative use of the web in politics is global. No one has a monopoly on innovation and 'new things.'

Every political and technolgy culture is different and thus the way they use the techonlgy is different. We should all spend a little less time bragging about how well this or that politician in our own country is doing but instead study and learn from the innovations of others around the world.

It's still only 10am on the first day of the Revolution...stay tuned.